I have a confession to make. Last week, I lost patience with the stream of well-meaning and useful advice that appears digitally every single day. I was discouraged and dispirited. I really had no energy for another how-to.

The next day, feeling somewhat more grounded, I recognized the source of my discouragement: There’s no end in sight. Nothing to look forward to. It feels like we can’t influence or control anything. There’s an ongoing sense of uncertainty and a feeling of helplessness about how to influence our futures.

Once I clarified the source of my discouragement, I realized there are actually a number of helpful techniques that can help us plan for an uncertain future. I’d like to share a few of these with you. I know I’m doing exactly what I was impatient about the other day but I’m going to give it a try anyway.

First of all, what’s the problem? Why is uncertainty such a big stressor for so many people?

It starts with the biological reality that human beings crave certainty. It’s hardwired into our brains. Here’s an example you can probably relate to: Have you ever been walking along, your foot landed on a pebble, and you startled as if you’d been hurt? What was going on there?

Some neuroscientists refer to our brains as “prediction machines.” Below the level of conscious awareness, our brains are anticipating the next second, and the next, and so on. That allows us to rapidly respond to changing conditions in the environment. It also causes us to startle when we encounter a condition we didn’t anticipate. We respond with danger, danger, danger, even if it’s only a pebble.

The problem is, certainty is an illusion. We literally can’t know what’s going to happen from one moment to the next. We can only predict.

This dilemma causes great discomfort and anxiety. And especially when the uncertainty is long lasting and impacts every aspect of our lives, as we’re experiencing during this time.

But we can take advantage of the brain’s proclivity for prediction to increase our sense of control even in uncertain times.

Here are three helpful approaches:

Strive for clarity, not certainty. This is a distinction I learned from David Rock of the NeuroLeadership Institute. The way I understand this is that instead of trying to counteract uncertainty with rules, we aim to clarity what’s most fundamental at the level of principle. Principles are much more flexible than rules and more conducive to dealing with uncertain and changing conditions.

Here’s an example: A client described the fear felt by workers in her company that declining revenue would lead to layoffs. She wanted to assure them that wasn’t going to happen but of course she couldn’t. She couldn’t even say exactly what was going to happen. I asked her to consider aiming for clarity rather than certainty. She readily came up with a set of principles that would be applied in the event that layoffs needed to be considered. She felt comfortable sharing that with the workers and felt it would help relieve some of the fear. It is possible to plan for an uncertain future if you aim for clarity, not certainty.

Create scenarios of possible futures using “if/then” planning. One way the brain tries to prepare for the future is to create If/then plans..If this happens, then I will do that”…and adjusting frequently. For example: “If our organization experiences significant budget cuts due to COVID then we will…” These are not predictions, they are scenarios. Each combines a future hypothetical condition of the environment with an option for action. David Ingvar, who did much of the research on this, called these scenarios “memories of the future.”

These “memories of the future” help direct our attention to relevant information. Let’s say one memory of the future is “the possibility of significant budget cuts due to COVID.” Once you envision that possibility your brain starts noticing potentially relevant resources: an email for a Paycheck Protection Program loan, a notice of grants available to organizations in your city, free training for displaced workers. Those resources had been there previously but until you had a memory of the future, you didn’t perceive them as relevant.

The takeway is this: We will not perceive a signal from the outside world unless it’s relevant to a potential future that we’ve already worked out in our imagination. The more “memories of the future” we develop, the more open and receptive we’ll be to signals from the outside world. And the more agile, flexible and adaptable we will be.

Use the Circle of Concern/Circle of Influence tool. “What would you like coaching on?” I asked Bruce. He responded, “I have no idea where to start. There are so many things on my mind. My kids aren’t getting enough socialization, I’m not sure what to do about the holidays. My father has dementia and doesn’t understand what’s going on. And things at work are really rough. I feel overwhelmed and I don’t know where to start.”

Can you relate to Bruce’s situation? These days there are so many life-impacting concerns that it can be hard to focus. That’s where the Circle of Concern/Circle of Influence comes in.

In his book The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey introduced a framework called Circle of Concern/Circle of Influence. I often use this with my clients and in my own life.

The first step is to draw two circles and label them as follows:

The exercise is this:

In the outer circle, brainstorm some areas of concern. Bruce might pick “My kids aren’t getting enough socialization.” Pick one topic and identify an action you are already taking to address that concern. Write it in your Circle of Influence.
Next, pick another topic in your Circle of Concern that you’re doing something about but not as much as you’d like. In Bruce’s case, he’s already scheduling virtual play dates for his kids but he’d like to think of something more active, maybe outdoors. Think of an action that would be the next step of influence over this concern. Write that in your Circle of Influence.
Finally, pick a concern that you feel really stuck on. It matters to you but you don’t see a way to be proactive with this concern. Using your practice from the previous two, identify one action that will move you from concern to influence, no matter how small. Write it in your Circle of Influence. Finally, commit to taking the first few steps to get traction on this action as soon as possible.

Covey writes that proactive people focus their efforts in the Circle of Influence. They work on the things they can do something about. The nature of their energy is positive, enlarging and magnifying, causing their Circle of Influence to increase. This exercise is a way of strengthening your proactivity muscles. If you keep working with these circles, eventually your Circle of Influence will expand considerably.

Maybe you’re still feeling the way I did, irritated and impatient with how-tos. I understand. You’re doing your best to keep your head above water and don’t have the energy for positive thinking.

If so, I have two suggestions. You can bookmark this post and come back to it when you’re feeling more hopeful.

Or you could try the Circle of Concern/Circle of Influence exercise. It’s a small step toward being proactive even in times of great uncertainty.

Please share your thoughts in the Comments. Thank you and happy Thanksgiving!